HCMC apartment liquidity continues to decline

A sharp increase in supply combined with high price levels has prevented HCMC apartment liquidity from recovering as expected, despite developers ramping up demand stimulation.

According to a report by Knight Frank Vietnam, the expanded HCMC apartment market (including HCMC, Binh Duong, and Ba Ria – Vung Tau after merger) recorded more than 7,150 new units launched in the second quarter, raising the total primary supply to over 14,200 units, a 156% increase quarter-on-quarter and about 35% compared to the same period last year.

The increase in supply pushed the total market absorption to around 7,680 units, corresponding to an absorption rate of 39%. Looking only at inner-city HCMC, the number of apartments sold reached 1,781 units, with an absorption rate of only about 31%.

Compared to the previous quarter, purchasing power increased by 3 percentage points thanks to liquidity from mid-end products concentrated in Binh Duong, but it was still 24% lower than the same period last year. According to Knight Frank, the slow liquidity this quarter was mainly due to new supply still being concentrated in the high-end and luxury segments, exceeding the affordability of most buyers.

This trend was also noted by the One Mount Group Center for Market Research and Customer Understanding. This unit statistically recorded that in the second quarter, HCMC had about 11,000 new apartments launched, up 51% year-on-year. However, the transaction volume only reached about 9,500 units, dragging the absorption rate down from 52% in the previous quarter to 50%.

Real estate in the eastern area of HCMC, April 2026. Photo: Quynh Tran

Not only did purchasing power weaken, but the market also recorded a clear division between price segments. According to One Mount Group, projects priced from 60 to 120 million VND per square meter accounted for more than half of the total transaction volume and achieved an absorption rate of about 59%. Meanwhile, the group of apartments priced above 120 million VND per square meter only reached about 20%, reflecting a trend where buyers are becoming increasingly cautious with high-value products.

Research firms believe that the main reason liquidity has been slow to improve is that selling prices continue to rise while interest rates remain high and buyers’ affordability is limited. Knight Frank recorded that the average primary price in expanded HCMC reached 3,670 USD, equivalent to nearly 95 million VND per square meter, an 8% increase compared to the same period last year.

Meanwhile, One Mount Group stated that the primary apartment price in the central area of HCMC reached about 103 million VND per square meter, while Binh Duong was around 60 million VND per square meter, up 33% year-on-year.

Apartment prices continuing to remain high has widened the gap between supply and demand. While most of the launched projects belong to the high-end segment, market demand is focused on affordable products serving real housing needs. This mismatch causes the new inventory to increase rapidly but liquidity does not improve correspondingly.

To stimulate demand, many developers have applied interest rate support policies, extended payment schedules, and increased discounts. However, these programs mainly help reduce the initial financial pressure for buyers and are not enough to boost liquidity when the biggest barrier remains the price.

Mr. Son Hoang, Deputy Director of Research and Consulting at Knight Frank Vietnam, said that buyers are shifting from an investment mindset to prioritizing real housing needs. Customers tend to choose projects with appropriate total value, clear legal status, and guaranteed progress. As a result, liquidity is mainly concentrated in the mid-end segment, while high-end projects continue to sell slowly.

According to this unit’s forecast, from now until the end of 2027, expanded HCMC is expected to have about 76,000 more apartments, of which 31,740 units are in the inner-city area of HCMC. The future inventory will still mainly concentrate in the high-end and luxury segments with prices continuing to be positioned at high levels.

According to One Mount Group, HCMC will have about 15,000-20,000 more apartments launched in the second half of the year, bringing the total supply for the whole year to about 30,000-35,000 units. Apartment prices in the central area are forecast to increase by another 3-5%, while Binh Duong could increase by 15-20% due to the appearance of many new projects.

Research firms assess that supply will continue to improve in the final months of the year, but liquidity is unlikely to break through if prices remain high. In a context where buyers increasingly prioritize financial factors and real utility value, projects with suitable prices will continue to lead transactions, while the high-end and luxury segments still face great sales pressure.

Phuong Uyen