Global gold prices endured a turbulent week, sliding from $4,540 per ounce to $4,328, an adjustment of nearly 5%. The heaviest selling occurred at the end of the week after U.S. employment data came in stronger than expected, reinforcing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for an extended period.
Domestic gold moved in step with the global trend, with dealers selling at around VND 150 million per tael, about VND 8 million lower than at the start of the week. Compared with the peak set in early March, the current price is down nearly VND 41 million.
Most analysts expect the weak performance of precious metals to continue into this week. In Kitco News’ weekly survey, 11 of 15 Wall Street analysts said prices will keep falling. Two predicted sideways movement, and two expected a rebound after key support levels were broken.
Retail investor sentiment is also more cautious than last week, although less pessimistic than analysts. Among nearly 50 participants in Kitco News’ online poll, about 40% believe the metal will decline, roughly 47% expect a reversal, and the remainder foresee consolidation around current levels.
“The short-term downtrend shows no sign of changing,” said Adrian Day, chairman of Adrian Day Asset Management. He said global gold prices are likely to trade in a narrow range until the Middle East conflict shows clearer signs of resolution. A worrying factor is that tensions in the region are supporting the U.S. dollar and keeping oil prices high, which raises concerns that the Fed will maintain elevated interest rates—creating a headwind for the precious metal.
From a technical perspective, global gold is trading below the 200-day moving average for the first time in nearly three years. Analysts use this level to gauge an asset’s long-term trend.
“When that level is breached, gold is likely to continue sliding,” said Kevin Grady, chairman of Phoenix Futures and Options. He noted that money has flowed out of the market significantly since March, evident in low trading volumes and shrinking open interest. As a result, $4,128 per ounce (about $200 below the current level) could be the next support zone, allowing gold to find balance before any reversal.
Not all experts are bearish. Eugenia Mykuliak, founder and CEO of B2PRIME Group, said current weakness is not sufficient to conclude that gold has entered a bear market.
She argued the market is in a tug-of-war between short-term selling pressure from investors and long-term accumulation by central banks. If gold regains the 200-day moving average, it could start a new upswing. Conversely, even if the correction lasts longer, the metal’s long-term role as a safe haven has not been supplanted.
This week, several macroeconomic releases could influence the metal beyond U.S. employment data, including consumer and producer price indices, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada.
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